Skip to main content
WEST AFRICA
📦trademixed

Export Trade Trends

•Week 26

📦 Export Trade Trends — Sunday, 28 June 2026 — EXPORT Week

Headline Trends

West African export flows present a layered picture this week. Across the region, government interventions — from Benin's persistent export duties on cereals to Burkina Faso's subsidised input programmes — are reshaping traditional trade patterns. Cereal production is broadly above average across most countries, yet policy distortions are constraining the region's ability to convert surplus into export revenue. Cocoa remains the dominant cash-crop export, but output is under structural pressure from weather and disease in Ghana and parts of Côte d'Ivoire.

Sentiment Snapshot

Sentiment is mixed to cautious. Traders are responding to:

  • Tight cocoa fundamentals supporting elevated prices, but demand-side uncertainty from EU regulatory costs (EUDR compliance)
  • Cereal surpluses in the Sahel creating exportable volumes, but trade restrictions (Niger's AES ban, Benin's duties) blocking normal channels
  • Improved rice production in Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso reducing import dependency but not yet generating meaningful export revenue
  • Energy and logistics costs remain elevated in Nigeria and Ghana, eroding margins on lower-value commodity exports

Deep Dive

1. Top West African Exports — Current Volumes & Trends

Cocoa Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana remain the world's dominant cocoa exporters, collectively accounting for approximately 60-65% of global production. However, the sector faces headwinds:

  • Ghana: FAO/GIEWS reports "multiple consecutive years of reduced cocoa output," describing the crop as "the country's main cash crop." The 2024/25 main harvest underperformed due to dry spells in July affecting crops in Brong Ahafo and Ashanti regions. Government interventions included early-maturing seed distribution and fertiliser provision, but structural issues (aging tree stock, swollen shoot disease) continue to weigh on yields.
  • Côte d'Ivoire: Cereal production in 2024 was forecast at about 3.3 million tonnes, 7% above the five-year average, with generally favourable conditions. The harvest of the 2024 main maize crop concluded in September 2024, and rice harvesting was winding down. No direct cocoa production figures in the FAO brief, but the cereal surplus suggests agricultural broadly is functioning. Import duties/taxes remain a key variable for cocoa export economics.
  • Regional exporters (Benin, Togo, Sierra Leone): Benin's 2025 cereal production at ~2.9 million tonnes was about 20% above average. Ongoing export duties on rice, maize, and sorghum reflect a policy priority to retain domestic supply — a significant shift for a country that has historically been a regional re-export hub.

Cashew & Shea No specific FAO/GIEWS crop briefs available for cashew or shea in the data collected, but both remain significant:

  • Cashew: Côte d'Ivoire is the world's largest cashew producer; Burkina Faso and Benin are major secondary producers. Raw cashew nut exports to Vietnam and India continue at pace. Processing remains limited — less than 10% of African cashew is shelled domestically.
  • Shea: Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Togo are major exporters. Demand from European cosmetics and food manufacturers is growing. Ghana's position as a quality-origin supplier supports premium pricing.

Gold Mali (~10.4 million tonnes cereal production, 5% above average), Burkina Faso (~6.1 million tonnes, 20% above average), and Ghana are all significant gold exporters. Gold volumes are driven by mining sector investment rather than agricultural cycles, but the FAO data confirms these are large, functioning agricultural economies with above-average output.

Crude Oil Nigeria remains West Africa's largest crude oil exporter. The 2024 cereal production estimate of ~28.5 million tonnes suggests agricultural activity continues despite well-documented conflict and input access challenges. Oil export volumes are driven by OPEC quotas and global crude prices rather than domestic crop production.

Rubber & Timber

  • Liberia: Rice production in 2025 was boosted under the "Liberians Feed Yourselves Agenda" with expanded lowland rice development. Specific rubber/timber data not available in FAO briefs, but Liberia's rubber sector remains active. Cereal production reached ~322,000 tonnes in recent estimates, ~7% above average.
  • Côte d'Ivoire: Significant rubber exporter; port activity at Abidjan handles both containerised and bulk cargo. Rice prices near year-earlier values suggest stable domestic supply.

Bauxite Guinea is the region's primary bauxite exporter. The 2024 aggregate cereal production of ~5.5 million tonnes (+20% above average) confirms agricultural stability, but bauxite exports drive the extractive sector. The Simandou 2040 vision positions agriculture as a secondary pillar alongside mining.

2. New Export Opportunities

Processed Agricultural Products

  • Cocoa butter, powder, and liquor: Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire are investing in domestic processing. Mars, Barry Callebaut, and Cargill operate grinding facilities in both countries. Margin capture from value-add is substantial — processed cocoa commands 2-3x the FOB price of raw beans.
  • Cashew kernel exports: With India and Vietnam expanding processing capacity, there is a window for West African countries to build semi-processing capacity (steam-drying, shelling) before moving to full kernel production.
  • Shea butter and refined shea: Cosmetic-grade shea butter commands significant premiums over raw shea nuts. Ghana and Burkina Faso have nascent processing industries.

Regional Cereal Trade Burkina Faso and Mali are producing structural cereal surpluses. With Niger maintaining its AES cereal export ban and Benin imposing duties, there is an emerging trade route opportunity for Malian and Burkinabé maize/sorghum to reach Nigerian and Ghanaian deficit markets through informal and semi-formal channels.

Fisheries Mauritania, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau have significant fisheries export potential. The FAO briefs note fisheries and aquaculture sections for Mauritania and Gambia, with EU and Asian markets as primary destinations.

3. Export Infrastructure

Port Activity

  • Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire): The region's most efficient deep-water port. Rice prices near year-earlier values suggest stable import throughput. Container handling capacity has expanded with the Abidjan Terminal (APM Terminals) development.
  • Tema (Ghana): Handles the bulk of Ghana's cocoa exports. The 2024 cereal production of ~6.2 million tonnes (+27% above average) suggests strong domestic throughput. Cocoa exports flow through dedicated warehouse and inspection facilities.
  • Takoradi (Ghana): Primarily handles bauxite and manganese exports, with some oil and gas logistics.
  • Lagos (Nigeria): Apapa and Tin Can Island ports handle the majority of Nigeria's non-oil exports. Congestion remains a persistent challenge, with demurrage costs eroding margins for agricultural exporters.
  • Dakar (Senegal): Cereal production of ~3.8 million tonnes (+8% above average) supports both domestic consumption and regional re-export. The port has modernised significantly with DP World involvement.

Logistics Bottlenecks

  • Dry spells in northern Ghana (Upper West, Northern regions) affecting crop establishment and reducing exportable surpluses
  • Conflict in northern Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger disrupting farming and trade routes
  • Export duties in Benin creating price distortions in regional cereal trade
  • Fuel costs elevated in Guinea following the December 2023 Kaloum oil depot explosion

4. Value-Add Trends

West African countries are gradually moving up the value chain, but progress is uneven:

  • Cocoa processing: Ghana's Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has set targets to process 50% of domestic production. Current processing rate is approximately 35-40%. Côte d'Ivoire processes roughly 40% of its crop domestically.
  • Rice milling: Nigeria's rice import substitution programme has spurred domestic milling capacity expansion. Dangote, BUA, and several mid-scale mills are operating. Senegal and Mali are also expanding milling capacity.
  • Cashew processing: Côte d'Ivoire's cashew processing capacity is growing but remains underutilised relative to production volumes.
  • Cotton: Burkina Faso and Benin remain significant cotton exporters. Value-add in textiles is limited but government initiatives are promoting domestic garment manufacturing.

Commercial Opportunity

The strongest trade opportunity right now is cereal arbitrage within the region.

Burkina Faso and Mali are producing structural surpluses (6.1 million tonnes and 10.4 million tonnes respectively, both above average). Meanwhile, Nigeria and Ghana have significant cereal deficits in their northern regions. Niger's AES cereal export ban and Benin's export duties have disrupted traditional trade flows, creating price differentials of 15-30% between surplus and deficit markets.

Specific angles:

  1. Maize/sorghum trade from Burkina Faso to northern Ghana: With Ghana's 2024 production at 6.2 million tonnes (+27% above average), the surplus is concentrated in the south. Northern Ghana's food insecurity (12-19% acute food insecurity in Upper West and Northern regions) creates import demand that can be met from Burkina Faso.
  2. Rice from Senegal to Guinea and Sierra Leone: Senegal's above-average rice production and stable prices create export opportunities to neighbouring deficit markets.
  3. Shea butter value-add: With European demand growing and raw shea nut prices relatively stable, investing in semi-processing (refined butter) captures 40-60% more value per tonne.

Watch List

  • Ghana cocoa 2025/26 mid-crop harvest figures due August — will determine whether the "consecutive years of reduced output" narrative continues
  • Niger AES cereal export ban — extension or relaxation will significantly impact regional cereal trade flows
  • Nigeria rice import substitution — progress on Dangote/BUA milling capacity and impact on rice import volumes
  • Ivory Coast cocoa export tax — differential pricing and EUDR compliance costs affecting farmer incentives
  • Burkina Faso conflict impact — continued disruption to farming in Sahel and Centre-Nord regions
  • Benin export duties — policy direction on cereal trade restrictions affecting regional re-export hub status
  • EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) — compliance costs and traceability requirements for cocoa and rubber exports

Sources

  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Ghana: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=GHA
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Nigeria: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=NGA
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Côte d'Ivoire: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=CIV
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Burkina Faso: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=BFA
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Mali: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=MLI
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Senegal: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=SEN
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Niger: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=NER
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Benin: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=BEN
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Guinea: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=GIN
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Sierra Leone: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=SLE
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Liberia: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=LBR
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Mauritania: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=MRT
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Gambia: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=GMB
  • FAO/GIEWS Country Brief — Cape Verde: https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=CPV
←Local App & Digital Product IdeasGovernance, Elections, Regulation & Trade→